Powder Alert

Jan 31, 2012

SENT - 4:17 PM  TUESDAY

Epic Possibilities....

Powder Alert: Wed/Thursday - new snow with bluebird -  no extra charge Bluebird Alert: Friday- Monday

Expect increasing snow in the Cascades tonight easing up by mid day Wednesday. The snow level will be 2500ft. This storm will slightly favor North Cascades (Mt Baker) with an epic 8-15" of new, while the Central Cascades will have 5-9" - certainly a "respectable epic" SL of 2500-3000ft.  Wednesday, expect snow in progress early, but the storm will be easing up as the day progresses.

One wild card is a Puget Sound Convergence (PSCZ) possibly setting up later on Wednesday increasing the snowfall for the central Cascades. This could boost snowfall total substantially for Stevens  and the Summit, then Crystal and White as the PSCZ slides south , later in the day. So watch for that favorable possibility. No doubt, you'll get freshies for sure on Wednesday, while floating those turns. Thursday will have some quality leftovers, with bright sunshine making a showing.   .

Bluebird skies Alert - Thursday - Monday

Strong high pressure will build in Thursday into and beyond the weekend. That means I have a high confidence of a dry pattern setting up and staying with us for a while. Expect "bluebird" mostly sunny skies. The groomers, and initially the off piste, will be where the action is. Those spots will be fantastico, with the above near to average snowpack already in place.

Don't forget the sunscreen. It will occasionally feel like mild, spring conditions. Even with the sunshine, don't worry - it's still too early to start losing much, if any of the snowpack. And the season is far from over - plenty of winter time snow accumulation left in the season. Recall last year we had consistent great new snow from mid Feb to April  (arguably into May/June). The lesson here is: there is lots of time for more new snow and some of the best powder days to come.

Meanwhile, recharge your batteries in the sunshine. We've got a great snowpack - best in the West. Enjoy the break for some "early spring skiing" - like going to Hawaii without palms and the heart stopping, sensuous full body search at the airport.

La Nina Update: La Nina remains in progress and January of 2012 fit the pattern perfectly, as promised, with above normal precipitation (Cascade snow) and cooler than normal. As I have said, you never know the character as to how La Nina will manifest itself, only the most likely results (ie: cool, snowy). Despite the short term upcoming mild, dry pattern we should see a return to above normal mountain snow and cool temperatures. That pattern should persist into early spring, and then moderate. 

See:   http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Something to think about....

"...the best deep powder skiing is not in the lightest snow, but rather in snow with enough 'body' to provide float for the running ski"
-- Ed La Chapelle - legendary avalanche, snow researcher and powder skier.

Enjoy some fine skiing/riding ahead.

Grand Poobah of Powder

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